Determinants of tourism demand for Western Balkans countries: a system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51798/sijis.v6i1.917Keywords:
tourism determinants, Western Balkans, System Generalized Method of Moments, tourism demandAbstract
This paper's main objective is to investigate some of the most important determinants of tourism demand for Western Balkans countries. In this regard, a system generalized method of moments model is estimated for a dataset covering 17 relevant source countries over the period from 2010 to 2022. Results reveal that income levels, geographic proximity, and the COVID-19 pandemic significantly influence tourism flows. For instance, higher GDP per capita in source countries positively impacts tourism demand, while the pandemic had a strongly negative effect. These findings contribute to the literature on dynamic tourism demand modelling and offer actionable insights into policymakers to enhance regional tourism strategies.
References
Arellano, M., & Bond, S. (1991). Some tests of specification for panel data: Monte Carlo evidence and an application to employment equations. The review of economic studies, 58(2), 277-297. https://doi.org/10.2307/2297968
Blundell, R., & Bond, S. (1998). Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models. Journal of econometrics, 87(1), 115-143. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0304-4076(98)00009-8
Cho, V. (2010). A study of the non‐economic determinants in tourism demand. International Journal of Tourism Research, 12(4), 307-320. https://doi.org/10.1002/jtr.749
Eilat, Y., & Einav*, L. (2004). Determinants of international tourism: a three-dimensional panel data analysis. Applied Economics, 36(12), 1315-1327. https://doi.org/10.1080/000368404000180897
Gallego, A., Rodríguez-Serrano, M. Á., & Casanueva, C. (2019). Dynamic panel data models in tourism. Current Issues in Tourism, 22(4), 379-399. https://doi.org/10.1080/13683500.2018.1467386
Garín-Mun, T. (2006). Inbound international tourism to Canary Islands: a dynamic panel data model. Tourism management, 27(2), 281-291. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2004.10.002
Ibragimov, K., Perles-Ribes, J. F., & Ramon-Rodriguez, A. B. (2022). The economic determinants of tourism in Central Asia: A gravity model applied approach. Tourism Economics, 28(7), 1749-1768. https://doi.org/10.1177/13548166211009985
Konstantakopoulou, I. (2022). Does health quality affect tourism? Evidence from system GMM estimates. Economic Analysis and Policy, 73, 425-440. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eap.2021.12.007
Leitão, N. C. (2009). Portuguese tourism demand. Journal of Global Business and Technology, 5(2), 63.
Lim, C., & Zhu, L. (2018). Examining the link between meetings, incentive, exhibitions, and conventions (MICE) and tourism demand using generalized methods of moments (GMM): the case of Singapore. Journal of Travel & Tourism Marketing, 35(7), 846-855. https://doi.org/10.1080/10548408.2018.1435334
Liu, T. M. (2020). Habit formation or word of mouth: What does lagged dependent variable in tourism demand models imply?. Tourism Economics, 26(3), 461-474. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816619843041
Liu, Y., Li, Y., & Li, L. (2018). A panel data-based analysis of factors influencing market demand for Chinese outbound tourism. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 23(7), 667-676. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2018.1486863
Nguyen, L. P., & Nguyen, H. T. (2021). Factors impacting tourism demand: An analysis of 10 ASEAN countries. The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business, 8(1), 385-393. https://doi.org/10.13106/jafeb.2021.vol8.no1.385
Nickell, S. (1981). Biases in dynamic models with fixed effects. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 1417-1426. https://doi.org/10.2307/1911408
Shafiullah, M., Okafor, L. E., & Khalid, U. (2019). Determinants of international tourism demand: Evidence from Australian states and territories. Tourism Economics, 25(2), 274-296. https://doi.org/10.1177/1354816618800642
Tang, C. F. (2018). The impacts of governance and institutions on inbound tourism demand: evidence from a dynamic panel data study. Asia Pacific Journal of Tourism Research, 23(10), 1000-1007. https://doi.org/10.1080/10941665.2018.1513052
Tang, C. F., & Lau, E. (2021). Exploring the impact of political stability and climate change on inbound tourism demand: evidence from dynamic panel data analysis. Regional science perspectives on tourism and hospitality, 403-419. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-61274-0_20
Tavares, J. M., & Leitao, N. C. (2017). The determinants of international tourism demand for Brazil. Tourism Economics, 23(4), 834-845. https://doi.org/10.5367/te.2016.0540
Wamboye, E. F., Nyaronga, P. J., & Sergi, B. S. (2020). What are the determinants of international tourism in Tanzania?. World Development Perspectives, 17, 100175. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.wdp.2020.100175
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Emi Malaj, Visar Malaj, Najada Firza

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.