Theoretical and methodological approach for strategic foresight and advanced response in the national security context

Abstract

This article develops a systemic and structural-functional approach for forecasting threats to national security within a complex global landscape. It draws on systemic geopolitical assemblages to frame national security as a dynamic social macrosystem composed of interdependent microsystems. The methodological design combines bibliographic analysis, critical content analysis, and interdisciplinary reasoning with scientific forecasting techniques, including extrapolation, scenario modeling, analogical reasoning, and simulations. The study also discusses the Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs) and recent advances in AI-based predictive tools. The approach emphasizes the interplay between internal system dynamics and external shocks in shaping threat environments. It also integrates heuristic methods to manage deep uncertainty, enabling the construction of adaptive strategic scenarios. Emphasis is placed on the epistemological convergence of qualitative and quantitative techniques, including the role of AI in intelligence assessment, its limitations due to data quality and opaqueness, and the need for human-led triangulation. By incorporating contextual, ethical, and behavioral insights, the paper proposes a hybrid foresight methodology tailored for current geopolitical discontinuities and complex crisis formations. It contributes a theoretically and methodologically grounded model for improving national security risk anticipation through interdisciplinary and adaptive analysis.